Monday, April 25, 2005

Who Fears Whom?

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be nostalgic for the Soviet Union:

Putin, who served as a colonel in the KGB, has resurrected some communist symbols during his presidency, bringing back the music of the old Soviet anthem and the Soviet-style red banner as the military's flag.

In the 50-minute address at the Kremlin, Putin avoided mentioning the need to work more closely with other former Soviet republics — in contrast to previous addresses — and he made passing reference to the treatment of Russian-speaking minorities in former Soviet republics.

"First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century," Putin said. "As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy. Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory. The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself."

Russia regularly complains about discrimination against Russian-speaking minorities, particularly in the Baltic countries of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.



First of all, it's a good thing that China isn't involved since the lack of any regret for the crimes of the Soviet Union should require lots of apologies from Putin. Japan must be envious of Putin's freedom of expression.

Seriously, though, Russia never has come to grips with its bloody past. It is disturbing that Putin seems to be calling for mother Russia to protect the ethnic Russians caught on the wrong side of the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Or is he? Putin included this bit:

"The epidemic of collapse has spilled over to Russia itself."

Is Putin staking out grounds for intervention in the "near abroad" or is Putin expressing fear that the unrest that stripped Moscow of its Eastern European empire and then the non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union might spread to rump Russia itself?

Some argue that it's only a matter of time before the revolutionary tide sweeps over Russia. Several of the country's 20 ethnic republics have a similar political profile to Kyrgyzstan, with a long-time ruler monopolizing power and often extending corrupt tentacles into business. "Events around the former Soviet Union have raised the possibility that similar things can happen here too," says Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the independent Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow. "The situation in several of our republics, including Tatarstan and Bashkortistan, look very much like Kyrgyzstan."

Perhaps Putin fears that the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of this century is yet to happen in Russia. Of course, if this fear leads the Russians to try and recreate the Soviet empire, this will be a problem. I'm glad we've pushed NATO east while we could under the circumstances!

Sadly, as a former KGB agent, Putin is unlikely to see democracy as the means to avoid such a catastrophe. We need to watch this train wreck waiting to happen. And strengthen democratic institutions inside Russia. I want Russia to be our friend and ally. But attitudes such as Putin expresses are a huge problem to being real allies.

UPDATE: Well that was quick. An article in the Times about protests in the Bashkortostan region within the rump Russian state where democracy is denied to the provinces:

In mid-April, with no elections on the horizon after two months of protests, some 200 opponents flew to Moscow to make their case, holding a rally and presenting to Mr. Putin's administration a petition with what they said were 107,000 signatures calling for Mr. Rakhimov's dismissal. Meanwhile, rallies here continued, and another is scheduled for May 1.

Mr. Bignov said the opposition leaders had made their case directly to Mr. Putin's aides, though he declined to say whom in the Kremlin they had met. Mr. Petrov said Mr. Putin was unlikely to agree, for fear that a precedent set here would ignite protests against other unpopular leaders.

Since Mr. Putin abolished regional elections, which he defended as a means to strengthen executive power, protesters in three other southern regions - Karachayevo-Cherkessia, Ingushetia and North Ossetia - have unsuccessfully demanded the dismissal of their leaders. So far, though, the protests here have been the most significant and sustained.

"We are facing a new wave of social activism," Mr. Petrov said. "And it is dangerous, because there is a lack of democratic institutions through which this energy can be channeled."

Putin is squeezing the people and trying to centralize power; but is the Russian state capable of wielding the tactics of the old Soviet Union to quell calls for democracy?