Wednesday, August 24, 2005

When Near, Appear Far

The site China e-Lobby reported in the spring that China will invade Taiwan in 2012. This according to an unnamed high-ranking Chinese Communist Party official:

Prior to 2008, every policy should center one the Olympics to further arouse Chinese people’s patriotism and prepare for attacking Taiwan. Around 2010, reorganize the Party and clean out all the members who are against military action. Around 2012, attack Taiwan and call for an Emergency Act inside China.


Far be it from me to doubt the word of a nameless Chinese communist, but I have my doubts.

Sun Tzu advised "if near, appear far."

China has reason to appear far. The Taiwanese continue to dither (via China e-Lobby) over improving their military (and many Americans assume that the package we offered Taiwan in 2001 are in place when the Taiwanese haven't even decided to purchase the weapons!):

The main point of contention between Washington and Taipei is a package of weapons offered by the United States that includes eight diesel-electric submarines, six Patriot anti-missile batteries, 12 P-3C anti-submarine aircraft and other items worth $15 billion to $18 billion.

The Bush administration presented that package in April 2001, but the proposal has languished ever since.

Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian, who belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has urged lawmakers to approve funds for the purchase. But the legislature, controlled by the opposition Nationalist Party, has refused.


The Nationalists, who ruled the island and were supported by the United States against the communist-ruled mainland for decades, have contended that some of the weapons aren't needed, that they are too expensive or they aren't modern enough.

Peking is wise not to focus the attention of the Taiwanese on the threat I think is bearing down on them. If the Chinese invade as I think they will on the eve of the Olympics, the surprise will be complete and cries that Taiwan would have been ready by 2012 will be sad footnotes to a free people who threw their liberty away.

I seriously worry about the Nationalists' loyalty to Taiwan. Their hearts remain on the mainland and in the end I fear they love the mainland more than they fear the communists.