Wednesday, October 18, 2006

This Was a Cheap Purchase

Unless we can overthrow the regime of Kim Jong-Il (either by collapsing the regime by strangling it or from a pro-Chinese coup), it is likely that dominoes will fall in Asia as Japan and then South Korea and Taiwan go nuclear in response to North Korea's looming nuclear arsenal.

In an effort to buy time, the United States has reaffirmed our nuclear umbrella over Japan. Secretary of State Rice was clear:

"The United States has the will and the capability to meet the full range, and I underscore full range, of its deterrent and security commitments to Japan," Rice told a news conference in Tokyo, the first stop on a tour of North Asia.

The Japanese responded:

Japan, a traditional target of Pyongyang's animosity, has seen debate increase over whether to acquire nuclear arms. But Foreign Minister Taro Aso reiterated Tokyo had "absolutely no intentions now of preparing to possess nuclear weapons."

"There is no need to have nuclear weapons as the Japan-U.S. security framework will be activated for the defense of Japan," he said. "And Secretary Rice has just reconfirmed that."


So, by publicly pledging to nuke North Korea if North Korea hits Japan with nuclear weapons, Japan has indicated that it is satisfied with our nuclear guarantee and so will not pursue nuclear weapons in response. This buys time to end the catalyst for all the nuclear talk.

But this was a cheap purchase. North Korea can't yet put a nuclear warhead on a missile that can hit us (and probably can't hit Japan either, yet), so we can pledge to nuke Pyongyang without worrying about a nuclear attack on our territory.

But what happens when North Korea does demonstrate the ability to fire a missile that can reach as far as our West Coast (not to mention the closer Guam, Alaska, and Hawaii)?

Then our pledge to respond to a North Korean nuclear strike on Japan gets much weaker. When that day happens, Japan will find that they do indeed need nuclear weapons that they themselves can use to threaten a nuclear response to a North Korean attack.

But we did buy some time to end the Pillsbury Nuke Boy's regime. That is the only solution, really, to stop a nuclear arms race in Asia and to prevent North Korea from selling nuclear missiles or bombs (or just the designs) to others.