Saturday, December 23, 2006

Reading Tea Leaves

OK, I can't help it. I was going to avoid speculating on press reports about what we are going to do, but this article at least addresses Secretary Gates' reported statements.

First:


In the larger context, he spoke optimistically about Iraq's political leaders and their commitment to taking over their own security and dealing with the militias that have brought the country to the brink of civil war.

Second:


Gates mentioned one unit's success at training Iraqi brigades by boosting the size of the U.S. teams embedded in each Iraqi unit. He talked at length about the continued need for U.S. forces to support the Iraqis as they build their security forces, signaling the unlikeliness of a rapid drawdown.


Third:


He issued a stern warning to Iran and Syria, saying the U.S. has an enduring commitment to the Gulf region while they are having a negative impact on Iraq's security.

Fourth:


And he predicted American troops will be providing logistical help for "a long time," and didn't rule out a short-term increase in troop levels when several soldiers told him they thought it would help.

And Fifth:


"Will the way forward probably be difficult? Probably," Gates said. "But I believe, based on what I've heard and seen both from the American commanders and from the Iraqis, that things are moving in a positive direction. But it's going to be a long haul."

These are interesting. Gates is saying that we have to stand up the Iraqis and that the Iraqis must confront the militia problem. We must keep advisers within Iraqi units to bolster their abilities. We will be providing logistical and related support to the Iraqi miltiary for years to come. We could add more troops if needed in the short run. And this means no quick withdrawal of US combat forces. And he explicitly warned Iran and Syria, showing he recognizes what those two countries are doing to kill our troops and Iraqis. (Could this problem be a task for a surge? Will have to think about that.)

And most important, Secretary Gates states what I have been adamant about stating clearly despite the growing conventional wisdom: he thinks we are winning this war. We may be winning more slowly than we'd like, and it will take more time to win--but we are winning.

This sounds an awful lot like staying the course. Never forget that staying the course does not and never has meant a static course.

But the Senate confirmed Gates already so it is too late to hold him to his confirmation hearing statement that we aren't winning in Iraq. He even improved on his "we aren't winning and we aren't losing" comments. I'm feeling better about him.

We are winning. So let's surge a little patience to Iraq, shall we?

UPDATE: Here's the transcript of the news briefing.