Monday, February 28, 2011

The Stalemate Continues

The stalemate in Libya is holding for now:

Gaddafi's forces have been trying for days to push back a revolt that has won over large parts of the military, ended his control over eastern Libya and is holding the government at bay in western cities near the capital Tripoli.

In both Libya's third city, Misrata, 200 km (125 miles) to the east, and Zawiyah, a strategic refinery town 50 km (30 miles) to the west, rebels with military backing were holding the town centers against repeated government attacks.

"An aircraft was shot down this morning while it was firing on the local radio station. Protesters captured its crew," the witness, Mohamed, told Reuters by telephone.

Libyan loyalists still haven't managed to take Zawiya or Misrata, two cities I believe are crucial to hold if Khaddafi wants to win this revolt.

Shooting down a Libyan aircraft shows that somebody is managing to put some captured air defenses in working order. If we want to help the rebels, we could help with technicians to repair what is there rather than ship in new weapons or enforce a no-fly zone.

Rebels boldly claim they'd move west if rebels in the east needed help, but if they could advance on Tripoli, they'd have done it already. Again, sending in people (hello private military contractor companies) to help organize rebel forces and set up some logistics to support a real plan to attack would do more good than no-fly, no-drive, or no-sail zones.

Somebody needs to make a move to break the stalemate, although I believe Khaddafi has a more urgent need to move and achieve some type of visible victory over the rebels since I think his side is far more brittle and vulnerable to defection. On the rebel side, the price of inaction is more likely to be a long civil war rather than outright defeat.

The West has an interest in making sure that Khaddafi doesn't win and that the rebels don't need a long civil war to win.

UPDATE: More news. Libyan government forces suppressed demontrations in the capital. Outside Misrata from an air base that both sides have a foothold on, government and rebel forces skirmished as the loyalists attacked the city (this is corrected); and rebels managed to send reinforcements from the eastern strongholds to Misrata. the latter is interesting on two counts: one, the rebels managed to do more than hold static positions where they had successful uprisings; and two, how did they get past what I had heard was a government area in the Sirte region between Misrata and the rebel-held east? Is the Sirte region no longer pro-government or is it too fluid for any pro-Khaddafi forces there to interdict traffic?