Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Arming the Rebels?

Should we arm the rebels in Libya? My first preference would be to put weapons in the captured arms depots into working order. Perhaps that is not an option. If not, arming the rebels is the logical next step. If we don't, the frustration that the rebels already have at the lack of effective air support during combat will step up to the next level and result in the rebels and the loyalists hating us.

Perhaps we and the Libyan rebels need to look to the Toyota War for options on how to beat Libyan mechanized forces. And the Chadians didn't have the level of air support that the French could provide back then.

Get 4-wheel drive vehicles with those multiple rocket launchers and anti-tank missiles; buy the services of a military contractor to train and organize the rebel armed mob; and stop charging up to loyalist positions.

Get off the damned coastal road. Go around Sirte and other loyalist strongholds with a bunch of mobile raiding groups and work to pick off tanks and armored vehicles at long range. Stay away from the roads where coalition planes hunt loyalist armor and supply vehicles.

And for God's sake, hold at Ajdabiya.

UPDATE: And no, I'm not dismayed at the chance that we might send some arms to a "flicker" of al Qaeda or Hamas in Libya's rebel faction. As long as they shoot at Khaddafi's forces, deal with one problem at a time. As I recall, there were more than "flickers" of communists in the French and Yugoslavian resistance when we sent them arms to fight the Nazis. And do I even have to mention the "flickers" of communists in the Soviet Union when we lost lots of lives fighting convoys through German air and sea attack to reach Murmansk to provide them with arms and supplies? By all means, avoid directly giving arms to jihadi types. But don't deny aid to (and future influence over) the remainder.

UPDATE: Speaking of Chadian tactics, is Chad intervening on the side of Khaddafi?

Bani said he heard from three sources, including one in Chad, that 3,200 to 3,600 heavily armed members of the Chadian presidential guard were marching from Sirte toward Ajdabiya. The report could not be independently confirmed.

That per the rebel spokesman. That seems rather unlikely.

UPDATE: Rebels in Libya, as in the rest of the Arab world so far, are not being led by jihadis. Of course, jihadis will try to exploit the revolts and unrest. But the fact is, most of the protesters or rebels have rejected the calls of jihad and are not fighting to establish theocratic Islamist states. Our support can be valuable in strengthening the non-jihadis during the struggles on the streets or on the battlefields, and after when they try to build a new government and society.

Fretting too much that jihadis will take over and refusing to help the rebels defeat Khaffafi will just make it easier for Khaddafi to kill off lots of non-jihadi rebels and leave a higher proportion of jihadis among the rebels. Or our lack of support for the rebels will frustrate the non-jihadis and perhaps radicalize them (the left is fond of saying that Ho Chi Minh reached out to us after World War II, but because we rejected him he turned to communist ideology to motivate his fight for independence in Vietnam).

We're at war. The primary problem is winning it, and destroying the Khaddafi regime is how we win it. One problem at a time, people, or we'll end up with an angry Khaddafi regime that survives our half measures and rebels who resent our failure to support them and turn to radical jihadis who will at least fight at their side with real determination to beat Khaddafi. There's nothing smart about that.