Monday, March 28, 2011

Fueling a Long Civil War

Since early in the Libya Civil War, I've mentioned that the loyalists and rebels have the potential of funding a long east-west civil war with oil resources on their own side of the country. This article describes the oil industry and who has what:

Libya's energy wealth is more or less divided down the middle of the country, with huge unexplored areas of the Sahara Desert in between. About two-thirds of the country's mammoth oil reserves - the biggest in Africa - lie in what's now rebel-held territory. The rebels also control key oil-export terminals in the eastern ports of Zuteina and Tobruk, where hundreds of thousands of barrels now sit in storage tanks. Across the country, Gaddafi's regime controls the natural-gas pipeline to Italy, near the Tunisian border, as well as Tripoli's big oil-export terminal, and Libya's two biggest oil refineries, at Ras Lanuf (which Gaddafi seized back from the rebels just two weeks ago) and Zawiyah.

That neat East-West division of the natural spoils could allow for a long, bloody war, since each side has the potential to generate massive income for many years to come by tapping into their separate oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries, and terminals - that is, so long as they can find customers.

As I've said, this could make for an Iran-Iraq War in the Desert. Although note that since the article was written, the rebels captured Ras Lanouf.

Oh, and both sides will find customers for their oil. Whoever doubts that doesn't put gas in their car.