Sunday, October 23, 2011

The Long Road Ahead

If you don't count the fragile success story of Iraq or the abortive Cedar Spring in Lebanon, the Arab Spring began in Tunisia. We are fortunate it started there, for as voters head for the polls today, Tunisia has the best chance of setting a good example of the first vote:

The unexpected revolution in this quiet Mediterranean country — cherished by European tourists for its sandy beaches and desert oases — set off a series of similar uprisings against entrenched leaders, an event now being called the Arab Spring. If Tunisia's election produce an effective new government they will serve as an inspiration to pro-democracy advocates across the region, including in next-door Libya, where longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi was killed last week by rebel forces.

Of course, democracy isn't just that first vote. It's the second and third and twentieth. With confidence that winners and losers alike are protected by the laws that the majority writes under the restrictions of their constitution.

Voting can just be the non-violent means for a dictator to achieve power. Yet while it isn't the only thing that goes into democracy, it surely is one thing that simply must be done to call your country a democracy.

Let's stay involved. Revolution and the first free election are just the first--but vital--steps to democracy.

UPDATE: The initial results are in:

Results from Tunisia's first free election were expected to hand victory to a moderate Islamist party on Tuesday, sending a message to other states in the region that long-sidelined Islamists are challenging for power after the "Arab Spring."

The voting system was set up to make it more likely that the winner would need allies to govern. This will happen. These guys will draw up the constitution and prepare for new elections in a year or so.

It would have been nice if the secular parties had won outright. But as long as elections continue to be held and whoever is in office has to account for how they ran the government during their tenure, results and not religion will eventually lead to better results (well, I hope that will be the result). Democracy is not judged by the first election results. It is judged by whether the first election is just a tool for the winner to seize power. It is judged over the long haul.