Sunday, January 29, 2012

Law and Order

Iraq's Sunni Arab vice president, Hashemi, has to face a fair trial. Perhaps I'm mistaken, but the general tenor of coverage seems to be that Maliki is clamping down on the Sunni Arabs to create a new (perhaps kinder and gentler) autocracy in Iraq. But Hashemi, even if he is personally innocent, does represent a real problem in Iraq with the Sunni Arabs, and Maliki can't ignore that problem:

The Shia Iraqis, who now control the government and security forces, could crush the Sunni Arabs, but the Sunnis do not believe this. It's an article of faith that the Sunni Arabs must prevail. It is God's Will. So the Sunni terrorists continue attacking, and the Shia dominated government threatens harsher punishment against the Sunni Arab community. This retribution is already underway, with the arrest of elected Sunni Arab politicians who are accused of participating in the terror attacks. All Sunni Arab politicians must have some relationships with Sunni Arab terror groups because the Sunni terrorists regularly assassinate Sunni Arab politicians they believe are "disloyal." It's easier (and a lot safer) to maintain some relationship with the terror groups than to openly oppose them. The Shia majority insists, for obvious reasons that the Sunni Arab leadership cooperate in crushing the Sunni Arab terror groups. But the Sunni Arab belief in their own superiority, and eventual regaining control of the government, is too widespread to be easily eliminated completely. As a democracy, the Shia politicians cannot ignore popular demand from the Shia majority for some action to end the Sunni terrorism.

If the Shia majority is denied the ability to use rule of law to curb extremist Sunni Arabs who dream of a restoration of their God-given right to rule the Shias and Kurds, the Shia majority will use other--more violent--methods. Their constitution is not a suicide pact.

We need to support rule of law in Iraq even if that means that the calm of Iraq is upset with a crisis over lingering Sunni Arab support for terrorism against the Shia majority. Terrorism needs to be completely suppressed.

The calm from letting Hashemi go without trial would just be the quiet of a boiling pot's lid being held firmly down and would explode eventually. It isn't success if our policy simply makes the explosion happen sometime in mid-November after our presidential election is over. We need to be creative to break the deadlock and allow a trial.

There is no doubt that some of Iraq's Sunni politicians are friendly with terrorists--if only to survive. Hashemi may or may not be guilty of active participation or even just looking away so subordinates can be participants. We need to provide assurances to all parties that the rule of law will fairly judge and punish those accused of terrorism and avoid persecuting the innocent. And rule of law must make progress in destroying the remnant terrorists who still plant bombs and kill. Iraq needs law and order and not just the quiet of a building storm.

And let me repeat that several American combat brigades able to side with factions that are attacked would do wonders to give Iraqi factions the confidence that they can rely on rule of law to settle disputes.