Friday, September 28, 2012

At the Intersection of No and Where

Mali continues to beg for help to deal with the Tuareg secession in the north that was hijacked by al Qaeda. But nothing that might work seems to be in the works.

African troops from ECOWAS may deploy to Mali:

Mali was initially opposed but has now agreed to host the 3,000-strong force in the capital, Bamako.

After intense regional diplomatic efforts, the authorities have given the green light for a logistical base on the outskirts of the city, BBC West Africa correspondent Thomas Fessy reports.

Mali's interim President Dioncounda Traore was known to be unhappy about foreign troops being posted in the capital.

But other than deploying to the capital, the West African force is not an offensive force. Which is why the UN is needed to give France the cover to provide logistics help (why the UN is needed, is beyond me):

Citing a letter sent by Mali's interim leaders to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on September 18, [French Foreign Minister] Fabius said Mali had requested a U.N. Security Council resolution under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter to mandate an international force "to help the Malian army to reconquer the occupied areas of northern Mali."

Mali can't reconquer the north. ECOWAS can't even move north without French logistics help. With that help, I doubt ECOWAS can do more than establish a government presence in a major urban center in the north and guard the road linking that city to the south.

Lord knows what Russia and China want in exchange for not using their veto.

I still think the French need to send a Foreign Legion regiment to lead the offensive.

But since al Qaeda is holding some French hostage, the entire French military is apparently being held at bay.

The wild card is an apparent link between the Benghazi consulate assault and the jihadis who control much of northern Mali. Will that motivate American assistance to replace what France would normally be expected to provide in their backyard?

And would that motivate the French, in turn, to do more to keep us out of their former colonial borders?

Let's not forget that the secession and subsequent inability of Mali to deal with the secession and jihadi influx was a stupid attempted coup by members of the military unhappy with the government's determination to fight Tuareg unrest in the north. That worked out swell, huh?

But the rest will work out just swell, I'm sure.