Friday, May 31, 2013

For the Glory of France

France will openly sell arms to China.

France has already sold weapons to Russia, and despite the European embargo on selling weapons to China's military, France is broke and eager for the China market.

France is facing a jihadi-based problem flowing from the Libya War in supporting their allies in the French sphere of influence in Africa:

Suicide attacks on a French-run mine and a military base in northern Niger have shown how an Islamist threat is spreading across the weak nations of the Sahara, meaning France may be tied down there for years to come. ...

Paris is keen to cut its troop numbers in the region. But, amid persistent bickering and mistrust among regional powers, President Francois Hollande admitted last week that French forces may have be used elsewhere in the Sahel.

France is hard-pressed to maintain a credible full-spectrum military force let alone use it to prop up allies in Africa and fight off jihadi threats.

Which makes China's decision to send 500-600 troops to Mali more understandable than mere attempts to protect African sources of raw materials. Sure, that explains other actions in Africa, but not in France's region, in my opinion.

France already signaled their willingness to bolster China at our expense.

And China has been spreading money around in Europe to soften them up.

France is the weak link in the European embargo. France needs all the help they can get to maintain their prized sphere of influence. And China would love to earn enough chits with Paris helping them hold that sphere to cash them in to get France to be the first to break the arms embargo on China.

Which means we might face French technology as we pivot to the Pacific and face China's growing military might.

We led from behind in Libya, but the French in front couldn't afford to lead for long.

UPDATE: The Western arms embargo is one reason the Chinese are sensitive to being reminded of Tiananmen Square:

China accused the United States of "prejudice" on Saturday after the U.S. State Department renewed a call for Beijing to fully account for its bloody crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in June 1989.

The United States should "immediately rectify its wrongdoings and stop interfering in China's internal affairs so as not to sabotage China-U.S. relations", Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said in an English-language statement released via the official Xinhua news agency.

The 1989 massacre was a long time ago, as far as the Chinese are concerned; and they hope the French agree to not bicker over who killed who.

The French already sell dual use material suitable for military use. So France is already in the lead in breaking the embargo.