Monday, September 30, 2013

Now He Doesn't Want to Talk?

I know that Democratic eliminationist rhetoric about Republicans that paints them as terrorists isn't sincere, because if they really believed that Republicans are enemies, Democrats would be on the fifth meeting with them by now. There might even have been an informal encounter in the hall! Hell, Democrats might have surrendered by now...

At this point, I can only assume that President Obama and his Democratic allies will finally agree to negotiate with Republicans over the funding bill if the House Republicans fire chemical weapons at the Mall or if Senate Republicans start enriching Uranium in the Senate Cloak Room.

UPDATE: Hmm. People keep saying that the government shutdown crisis won't end well for Republicans given that the 1995 shutdown was blamed on Republicans. Did that cause Bob Dole to lose in 1996? I think that it is more likely that Bob Dole caused him to lose to Clinton. And Republicans did do fine in Congressional elections, if I recall.

But no doubt, the press hammered Republicans for the lack of a budget and shutdown that year.

One, is it going to be the same reaction in a new media era and after 18 years of mounting debt? In 1996, the horrifying level was $5 trillion. Last year it was $16 trillion. Might that make a difference?

Two, the media isn't going to be a lock for the Democrats despite the established media's efforts to back their party.

And three, what if a shutdown isn't the goal of the Republicans?

If Republicans go to the edge and then allow the budget to pass "for the good of the country," won't Republicans be able to show that Democrats will defend the unpopular Obamacare at all costs? And if the law has as many problems as it seems, won't that tie Democrats to the act in bad ways? In some ways, after all, a delay could be seen as saving Democrats from the consequences of rushing the act--their act--into place, with arbitrary and politically convenient exemptions highlighting Democratic ownership.

Won't Republicans be able to point to eliminationist rhetoric from Democrats painting Republicans as suicide bombers and terrorists as a reason that it is not possible to even negotiate small popular changes with the Democrats? Thus Republicans must control both chambers of Congress?

Won't Republicans be able to argue that it is not even possible to negotiate with President Obama on even fixing the act? Let alone repealing and replacing the act? In this, Republicans will have a tremendous assist from the president who has talked more with Iran's new ruler than with Congressional Republicans about the budget crisis.

I would never say that this is the plan. And I can't say that this is how it could work out (I thought the Supreme Court approval would lead to more acceptance by the public--the opposite of reality, I'll add).

I just don't assume we know how the public will react to the crisis and eventual resolution, and I don't even assume we know how the crisis will play out, anyway.