Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Red Storm Rising?

Russia is alerting troops in western Russia--for a drill, they say.

This is useful for both a warning to the new authorities in Ukraine and for invading Ukraine:

"In accordance with an order from the president of the Russian Federation, forces of the Western Military District were put on alert at 1400 (0500 ET) today," Interfax quoted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying. ...

The western district borders Ukraine, which lies between NATO nations and Russia. Shoigu said the drill would be conducted in two stages, ending on March 3, and also involved some forces in central Russia.

Russia has ordered snap exercises before. But this one has more significance, obviously.

This bears watching.

UPDATE: While the Western district would work for an occupation of the eastern parts of Ukraine and to threaten Kiev from Belarus, as well as pose a threat to the Baltic NATO states, I was thinking that the Southern Military District would be alerted, too, in order to operate against the Crimean Peninsula. See here for district maps.

But then it occurred to me that the Southern District is already on high alert from its Ring of Steel operation to secure the Sochi Olympics games.

So there you go.

UPDATE: Ukraine's new leaders are worried about separatism in Russified regions.

When establishing a unity government, the new authorities desperately need to bring in easterners especially to reassure them that they are part of Ukraine and not considered aliens who need Russia for protection.

An effort for Crimea needs to be made, too. But that area is for more actual Russian than just Russified or Russian-speaking. But the effort must be made as much to reassure easterners about the new government's intentions and to contrast more sharply with any heavy-handed Russian efforts in Crimea to exert influence or control.

UPDATE: Note that the Central Military District--if that is what the reference to units in central Russia refers to--includes two brigades of Russia's Spetsnaz (special forces).

I'm afraid that I rarely mention such special forces since I never think of them as just another (albeit very well trained) version of infantry. They are not maneuver units.

But I always assume they are involved in any military operation.

UPDATE: The exercises include 150,000 men, according to the Russian defense minister:

In remarks carried by Russian news agencies, Shoigu said that the maneuvers involve over 150,000 troops, 880 tanks, 90 aircraft and 80 navy ships.

That includes air force, navy, and I assume air defense troops, in addition to army troops.

But that's a lot of tanks. That appears to be a third of their active main battle tanks. A heavy division would have 200-300 tanks.

Does that number include mobilized reservists manning stored tanks?

Or is this just a loose use of the term "tank" when they really mean nearly 900 armored fighting vehicles of all types.