Monday, May 26, 2014

Groundhog Day

Mali's government is determined to muck things up be refusing to grant a measure of autonomy to the minority Tuaregs in the north.

The Mali government is blowing the French campaign that ejected Islamists from large sections of northern Mali; and the Mali government is blowing the Tuareg realization that siding with Islamists to achieve independence was an error:

Fifty Malian soldiers died this week during a failed army attempt to seize the Tuareg separatist northern town of Kidal, the West African country's defense minister said on Sunday.

The fresh fighting on Wednesday, the worst since the government and separatist groups signed a preliminary peace agreement last year, threatened to sink struggling peace talks to end a long cycle of Tuareg uprisings.

The Tuaregs have reason to want autonomy from the south. But calling in jihadis to help them win was a serious mistake. It both denied them any sympathy from the West and gave Tuaregs the experience of living the joyous life under jihadi rule.

Yet the Mali government was unable to hold the north when the Tuaregs rose up. Even American airlift of supplies to mali forces in the north was unable to stem the tide.

So the French had to come in and drive the jihadis out of power.

The French are still hunting jihadis who survived and scattered. The Tuaregs have been helping the French.

And now, as I warned (and it didn't take a genius to warn about this), without a serious Mali government effort to reconcile with the Tuaregs and grant some autonomy, the post-jihadi peace is breaking down.

And with Islamists strong in Libya and still active in Alegeria, jihadis could return to Mali and turn an internal dispute into a matter that we have to pay attention to.

We've seen this story before.