Monday, May 26, 2014

Step One

Ukraine has a new president, notwithstanding Russia's successful efforts to disrupt the voting in the east:

Petro Poroshenko, a billionaire chocolate manufacturer, claimed the Ukrainian presidency with an emphatic election victory on Sunday, taking on a fraught mission to quell pro-Russian rebels and steer his fragile nation closer to the West.

Exit polls show he won 55% of the vote, although official results won't be released until Monday.

It will help the situation by having the voting over in one round rather than giving Russia more time to cause chaos.

Now we get to see what Putin meant when he said he'd "respect" the outcome.

Poroshenko should keep the victory party short and get to work.

UPDATE: Ukrainian forces are battling separatists at Donetsk:

Ukraine launched air strikes and a paratrooper assault against pro-Russian rebels who seized an airport on Monday, as its newly elected leader rejected any talks with "terrorists" and said a robust military campaign in the east should be able to put down a separatist revolt in "a matter of hours".

I appreciate the spirit, but Ukraine lacks the military power to put down the open revolt in hours.

Of course, if the local separatists see their Russian Spetsnaz and mercenary friends leave and go back to Russia, the open revolt could evaporate in hours.

UPDATE: Ukraine is serious about defeating separatists:

Ukrainian aircraft and paratroopers killed more than 50 pro-Russian rebels in an assault that raged into a second day on Tuesday after a newly elected president vowed to crush the revolt in the east once and for all.

All the Ukrainians have to do is finish the victory, deter a Russian invasion, and persuade enough non-fighting Ukrainians to reject the separatists and Russia while accepting the government in Kiev.