Friday, July 31, 2015

Cutting Off Anbar

Could a rapid advance be imminent in the Iraqi offensive in Anbar?

This is interesting:

US-led coalition air strikes destroyed early Friday two key bridges used by the Islamic State group on the Syrian side of the Iraqi border, a monitoring group said. ...

"Using these bridges, it would take IS only a few minutes to reach the Iraqi border from Albu Kamal," Abdel Rahman said.

"The strikes do not cut off IS's route to Iraq, but they make IS movements there more difficult, because it will take them longer and they will be in view (of the coalition) for a longer period of time," he added.

So ISIL will require more time to reinforce their forces in Anbar province from Syria.

In a slow-motion Iraqi offensive on Ramadi, it probably doesn't really affect ISIL's ability to reinforce Ramadi and other positions in Anbar. The attack is going too slowly to require fast ISIL response.

But if there is a war of movement all of a sudden--say out of Jordan, as I mention in this post--then that limitation helps us a great deal.

Mind you, I freely admit I am looking for dots to connect in a picture I already have in mind. And there are lots of dots.

But it would not shock me at all to wake up and find out that Jordan struck Anbar from the west with a US-supported mechanized drive. I just can't believe our big plan is a slow, grinding war of attrition from the east.