Tuesday, August 22, 2017

If Numbers Matter to the Navy

The Navy could get to a 355-ship Navy by 2030:

The Navy could reach a 355-ship fleet by 2030 if it both extended the service life of most of its current ships and built more than two dozen new ships beyond current shipbuilding plans, two admirals said this week.

We could get to the plateau earlier if the Navy resorted to auxiliary cruisers--modularized auxiliary cruisers, in particular (although I'd want more of the warship type rather than power projection versions)--to get numbers before the new builds hit the water.

And it would help in whatever plan we have to get to a larger fleet if our ships would stop having accidents that take them off the line:

Ten sailors are missing and five injured after the guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain collided with a tanker east of Singapore and the Strait of Malacca, the U.S. Navy said late Sunday.

This after Fitzgerald collided with a civilian ship in the Sea of Japan. Oh:

Aside from the USS McCain and USS Fitgerald incidents, the Navy crusier USS Antietam ran aground dumping over 1,000 gallons of oil in Tokyo Bay in Februray. In May, another cruiser, USS Lake Champlain, hit a South Korean fishing vessel.

I suppose we could just define these broken ships as still in the battle force. Voila!

Is this a training issue? Or is this kind of record that is normal and only seems alarming because it is put together in one article? Is it just bad luck, and sometimes that clusters in time?

An "operational pause" to look things over and answer some questions is prudent.

If it is a training issue, don't take the superiority of our Navy for granted. As China gains in quality of ships and quantity of those better ships (and subs and planes), we comfort ourselves that we have better trained crews to make up for those factors. Can we count on that supposed training edge?

And what about the quality of our leadership? Is that good given that they may have failed to make sure the sailors who staff our warships are capable?

I'm obviously concerned about the fate of sailors in these incidents. But if they are a symptom of a bigger problem that is what we should really be worried about.

UPDATE: Oddly, the possibility that the collision was intentional or was from radar interference or cyber warfare isn't ruled out yet.

UPDATE: Hacking is ruled out.

UPDATE: The Navy sacked the commander of 7th Fleet. Too many bad things were happening to his ships and sailors.